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Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive weed Mikania micrantha and its biological control agent Puccinia spegazzinii under climate change scenarios in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhang, Wei 1 ; Huang, Qing 2 ; Kuang, Yingzhi 2 ; Clements, David Roy 3 ; Xu, Gaofeng 4 ; Zhang, Fudou 4 ; Shen, Shicai 4 ; Yin, Lun 6 ; Day, Michael Denny 8 ;

作者机构： 1.Minzu Univ China, Sch Ethnol & Sociol, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

2.Southwest Forestry Univ, Sch Soil & Water Conservat, Kunming 650224, Peoples R China

3.Trinity Western Univ, Dept Biol, Langley, BC V2Y 1Y1, Canada

4.Yunnan Acad Agr Sci, Agr Environm & Resource Res Inst, Key Lab Prevent & Control Biol Invas, Minist Agr & Rural Affairs China, Kunming 650224, Peoples R China

5.Yunnan Acad Agr Sci, Agr Environm & Resource Res Inst, Yunnan Lancang Mekong Agr Biosecur Int Sci & Techn, Kunming 650224, Peoples R China

6.Southwest Forestry Univ, Sch Marxism, Kunming 650224, Peoples R China

7.Natl Forestry & Grassland Adm, Southwest Ecol Civilizat Res Ctr, Kunming 650224, Peoples R China

8.Queensland Dept Primary Ind, GPO Box 267, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia

关键词： MaxEnt; Puccinia spegazzinii; Mikania micrantha; Potential distribution prediction; Climate change scenarios; China

期刊名称：BIOLOGICAL CONTROL （ 影响因子：3.4； 五年影响因子：4.0 ）

ISSN： 1049-9644

年卷期： 2025 年 204 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Research on the potential distribution of invasive plants and their biological control agents under climate change is critical for informing strategies in invasive species management. The rust fungus Puccinia spegazzinii shows significant potential as a biological control agent for the invasive weed Mikania micrantha. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model was used to simulate the distribution of M. micrantha and P. spegazzinii under current and future climate scenarios. The models achieved excellent prediction performance, with M. micrantha and P. spegazzinii having area under the curve values of 0.921 and 0.978 respectively, and true skill statistics values of 0.886 and 0.902 respectively. Precipitation is the primary factor influencing the distributions of M. micrantha, while P. spegazzinii is determined by both temperature and precipitation. The suitable areas for the two species are concentrated in southern China, with M. micrantha exhibiting broader adaptability compared to P. spegazzinii. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas for M. micrantha in China will expand northward, with a maximum projected growth rate of 84.6 % in the 2070 s, whereas P. spegazzinii exhibits a contracting trend (with a projected reduction of 40.8 % in the 2050 s). Under the current climate scenario, the overlapping suitable areas between the two species account for 25.2 % of the total suitable area for M. micrantha and 100 % of that for P. spegazzinii and both remain relatively stable under future climate scenarios. This work can provide guidance for the application of biological control, and serves as a valuable reference for developing early warning and management response strategies for invasive species in China.

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